Thirty years in business, the last 12 as a director and shareholder, have taught me that the only certain thing in business is uncertainty, whether it be exchange rates, interest rates, steel and copper commodity prices, what competitors will do next, next year’s tax rates, next year’s EU directives, next year’s American legislation, whether the Euro currency will collapse, whether the UK will join the Euro currency if we remain in the EU, the price of sliced bread… the list is endless.
The Euro to Pound exchange rate has varied considerably over the years, up and down, and will continue to do so after Brexit.
When the pound is strong against the Euro my imports from the EU are cheaper and my exports to the EU less competitive, when the pound is weak my imports are more expensive and my exports become more competitive.
If you listened to George Osborne you would think that the Pound has never been weak against the Euro.
The Pound/Euro almost reached parity in 2008/9!
It is interesting to note that those who predict a weak pound following Brexit remain silent about the positive effect that this would have on UK exports!
The notion that the pound will weaken is largely based upon research that completely ignores the likely possibility that the EU itself and consequently the Euro will be weaker if we Brexit which would of course help offset potential Sterling losses. My business would never have got off the ground if I had sat around worrying and forecasting.
Regardless of the outcome of the referendum I am certain that my business will continue to face economic uncertainty for years to come, as it always has.
I am also certain that Germany will want to export its BMW cars and the French will want to export their wine and cheese to the fifth largest economy on the planet, come what may.
China does not have a trade agreement with the EU but this does not stop China exporting a vast amount to the EU.
George Osborne has never had a full time job outside of politics. Perhaps if he had ever run a business he would understand big words like economic uncertainty.
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