Duncan Lee says prosaically (5/2/16) ‘weather records seem to be broken every month’.
Appearances and sensationalist reporting are meant to deceive – especially when omitting the essential caveat ‘...since 1910 when official, standardised records began’.
Significantly, none of the mythical ‘98 per cent of scientists’ (a still unproven figure!) nor Met Office meteorologists can state categorically that our recent ‘record breaking (since...)’ inclement/warm weather is due to ‘man-made climate change’, only that it is through natural variation.
Planet Earth is 4.6 billion years old; it suffered three ‘recent’ non-man-made Ice Ages and benign warm periods, such as today’s.
If represented as a calendar year, dinosaurs disappeared Christmas Day, modern man arrived five minutes to midnight on New Year’s Eve, the last Ice Age was at 1-1/2 mins to midnight and our ‘unprecedented’ post-1910 weather began 3/4 sec before Big Ben strikes!
If Duncan studied weather records before 1910 (they began in the 1700s and are detailed in Climates of the British Isles) he would notice wide natural variances, anomalous records and cyclical climate patterns in our extreme Atlantic-driven maritime climate, little different from today’s.
Their effects are chronicled in The Sussex Weather Book, Weather Wisdom – fact or fiction?, Great British Weather Disasters et al (Whitaker’s Almanack records useful annual data).
Crucial to statistical analysis is ‘significance testing’ for statistical models can prove anything by using dubious parameters.
Indeed the IPCC politicians’ paranoid apocalyptic predictions are focused on the statistically unlikely (though statistically probable) upper co-efficient limit (upper extreme), never the equally unlikely lower limit nor the more likely, but insignificant ‘normal’ trend!
And therein lies its fundamental flaw, for this is to politicians and ‘warmists’ the only ‘science’ that is absolutely sacrosanct and any attempt (even by bona fide scientists) to question, contradict or disprove earlier hypotheses (man once flapped his arms to reach the stars!) is deemed the most heinous of all crimes!
So, who or what caused the benign warm periods before and after the recent Little Ice Age?
Barry M Jones
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